ABSTRACT
The shielding of older individuals has been proposed to limit COVID-19 hospitalizations while relaxing general social distancing in the absence of vaccines. Evaluating such approaches requires a deep understanding of transmission dynamics across ages. Here, we use detailed age-specific case and hospitalization data to model the rebound in the French epidemic in summer 2020, characterize age-specific transmission dynamics and critically evaluate different age-targeted intervention measures in the absence of vaccines. We find that while the rebound started in young adults, it reached individuals aged ≥80 y.o. after 4 weeks, despite substantial contact reductions, indicating substantial transmission flows across ages. We derive the contribution of each age group to transmission. While shielding older individuals reduces mortality, it is insufficient to allow major relaxations of social distancing. When the epidemic remains manageable (R close to 1), targeting those most contributing to transmission is better than shielding at-risk individuals. Pandemic control requires an effort from all age groups.
Subject(s)
COVID-19/prevention & control , COVID-19/transmission , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , COVID-19/epidemiology , COVID-19 Vaccines , Child , Child, Preschool , Computer Simulation , Female , France/epidemiology , Hospitalization/statistics & numerical data , Humans , Infant , Infant, Newborn , Male , Middle Aged , Pandemics/prevention & control , Physical Distancing , Young AdultABSTRACT
To combat the COVID-19 pandemic, many European countries have developed a public health strategy involving the use of digital contact tracing (DCT) applications to improve timely tracking and contact tracing of COVID-19 cases. France's independent COVID-19 Control and Society Connection Council (CCL) was established by law in May 2020 to issue advice and recommendations on the national epidemic digital systems. In this paper, we present the recommendations by the CCL, with the objective to increase the uptake and utility of French DCT applications. As the country's most vulnerable population has been subjected to greater virus exposure, a stronger impact of the lockdown, and less access to preventive and health care services, the CCL is particularly aware of health inequalities. The French DCT app TousAntiCovid had been downloaded by 13.6 million users (ie, 20% of the French population) in March 2021. To promote the use of DCT apps, the CCL has recommended that communication about the app's individual and collective objectives be increased. The CCL has also recommended the introduction of clear, simple, accessible, incentivizing, noncoercive information within the digital tools. In addition, the CCL has recommended improving public health policies to address the needs of the underprivileged. The CCL calls for promoting population empowerment with the use of digital tools, improving public health culture for decision-makers dealing with health determinants, taking social considerations into account, and incorporating community participation.